98.5% of them go to zero, and until now there was no way to make a penny out of knowing it. Tumble takes the other side of the trade itself — you stake, the coin falls, you get paid the fall.
In one 10,000-block window on Robinhood Chain, 131 tokens launched and two made it out of their bonding curve. The other 129 are still sitting in a curve nobody funded. We went and opened 45 of them one at a time: not one had graduated, and the median had zero real capital in it — the price it quotes is backed by nothing at all.
Tumble takes the other side of the trade itself, so there is nothing to borrow and nobody to find. You stake, the coin falls, you get paid the fall. That is the whole unlock.
You are not borrowing anything and you are not buying anything. You are making a bet with the desk about which way the price goes, and putting the money for it up front.
Your stake is the most you can ever lose. There is no leverage, no margin call and nothing to top up. The desk escrows the matching side before the position exists.
Measured from the Uniswap V4 pool price when you opened, to the pool price when you close. Both readings come from the same pool, and no oracle is involved.
Your 2 ETH plus 30% of it, less the 0.3% opening fee. Had it doubled instead, the position would have closed itself and the 2 ETH would be gone.
of your stake, charged once, straight into the vault.
of your stake for every hour the position stays open.
if the mark doubles. The most you can lose is your stake, and there is never a margin call.
before you can close, so nobody opens a short, dumps into the pool and closes in one block.
not in an operator's wallet. The desk contract will not let one position be paid out of another's stake, and it checks that after every change.
Every fee this desk collects funds the pot winners are paid from. Nothing is skimmed, and no outside money is needed to settle a position that went against the house.
The desk has its own token, and everything that token earns goes into the pot winners are paid from. This is exactly what that costs, stated plainly, because a fee nobody mentions is a fee somebody discovers.
1% to the PONS curve plus a 2% creator tax on top. This is a real charge, on every buy and every sell. Nobody is trading $TUMBLE for free.
All of the 2% tax plus 70% of the 1% curve fee; PONS keeps the other 0.3%. So 2.7% of volume reaches the pot, and it would be wrong to call it 3%.
The keeper claims it in native ETH with escrow.claim() and keeps every wei of it. Nothing is skimmed and nothing is diverted.
Ordered most bearish first. Every price, chart, depth and age is read off chain; every story is sourced and linked. The thesis is this desk's opinion, not a claim about anyone's conduct. Set your stake and see what a move pays.